Adaptation Strategy

Using a similar approach to the Climate Adaptation Toolkit and Risk Generator (Local Partnerships, 2023), the 61 risks and opportunities outlined in CCRA3 – the UK’s third Climate Change Risk Assessment (Climate Change Committee (CCC), 2021; HM Government, 2022), were used as a basis for the CCRA.

The 61 impacts (both risks and opportunities) from CCRA3 were tailored so that the descriptions were relevant to the DCIoS region (rather than at a UK-level). Through consultation with the CIG, impacts that were considered less relevant to the region were removed (e.g. impacts with international dimensions beyond the remit of the DCIoS region) and additional impacts were added where these were considered important impacts for the region (e.g. impact of fog on maritime and air travel). This resulted in 64 impacts being included in the DCIoS Climate Change Risk Register, which were categorised into five sectors that broadly correspond with the sectors highlighted in CCRA3:

• Natural environment (including agriculture, forestry, and fisheries)
• Infrastructure
• Health and the built environment
• Business and industry
• Cross-cutting (including international dimensions)

Four sector-specific workshops (WS) were then held with stakeholders from the CIG to assess and assign a magnitude and likelihood score for each impact for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario. The workshops, facilitated by RSK, were:

• WS1: Impacts to the natural environment and agriculture sector, held on 4^th October 2022, with representatives from Devon County Council, Cornwall Council, Council for the Isles of Scilly, and Westcountry Rivers Trust.
• WS2: Impacts to the health and built environment, held on 10^th October 2022, with representatives from Devon County Council, Cornwall Council, the NHS, and Devon and Cornwall Police.
• WS3: Impacts to infrastructure, held on 12^th October 2022, with representatives from the Environment Agency, Plymouth City Council, Devon Wildlife Trust, Cornwall Council, and Devon and Cornwall Police.
• WS4: Impacts to business and industry, and cross-cutting impacts, held on 14^th October 2022, with representatives from Cornwall Council, Devon County Council, Plymouth City Council, the NHS, and Devon and Cornwall Police.

Using insight from the national-level scores as a basis (CCC, 2021), discussion was held in each workshop to score the magnitude of the consequence and likelihood of occurrence (i.e. level of probability) relative to the UK-level. In addition, an urgency score was assigned to each impact, outlining the urgency for adaptation action.

The CCRA scores were then shared with the CIG for review. In addition, meetings were held with South West Water, Wales and West Utilities, and Openreach to sense-check and attain consensus on the impacts and scores relevant to key infrastructure in the region.

Risk scoring

Magnitude was scored on five-point scale: very low (1), low (2), medium (3) high (4) and very high (5). Likelihood was also scored on a five-point scale: very unlikely (1), unlikely (2), possible (3), likely (4), and very likely (5). By multiplying the magnitude by the likelihood, a risk score was obtained for each of the impacts.

Risk Score=Magnitude Score × Likelihood Score

The risks were then assigned a risk rating based on a five-point scale (Table 2):

• Negligible risk (score of 1): Negligible impact expected, associated with a minimal consequence and highly unlikely probability of occurrence.
• Minor risk (scores of 2 or 3): Minor impact expected, associated with a minor consequence and unlikely probability of occurrence.
• Moderate risk (scores from 4 to 9): Moderate impact expected, associated with a moderate consequence and possible probability of occurrence.
• Major risk (scores from 10 to 16): Major impact expected, associated with a major consequence and highly likely probability of occurrence.
• Severe risk (scores of from 20 to 25): Severe impact expected, associated with a catastrophic consequence and almost certain probability of occurrence.

Table 2. Risk rating matrix

Risk Rating Matrix		Magnitude of potential consequences
		Very Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Likelihood	Very Likely	Moderate	Major	Major	Severe	Severe
	Likely	Moderate	Moderate	Major	Major	Severe
	Possible	Minor	Moderate	Moderate	Major	Major
	Unlikely	Minor	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Major
	Very Unlikely	Negligible	Minor	Minor	Moderate	Moderate

Impacts were then prioritised by their risk rating, for each of the five sectors.

Urgency score

Risk urgency scores, to indicate the need for adaptation action in the next 5 years, were assigned to each of the 64 climate change impacts. The urgency scores were based on a four-point scale from CCRA3:

• More action needed: Additional adaptation is needed urgently, either over and above what is already happening, or in some cases adaptation needs to start where there is currently nothing happening
• Further investigation: Not enough evidence is available to make a robust judgement on what further action is needed
• Sustain current action: The level of current action is in line with the magnitude of the risk or opportunity.
• Watching brief: Further action is not currently justified, but monitoring the situation is.

The urgency scores applied in the assessment used the England-level urgency scores in CCRA3 as a basis. Each score was then reviewed and discussed with representatives from the CIG to determine if the score should be different for the DCIoS region.

Whilst most regional scores were similar to the national level, a few were different due to local circumstances (CIG10, CIG11, CIG20, CIG24, CIG25, CIG26, CIG28, CIG30, CIG32, CIG35, CIG45, CIG52, CIG58, CIG59, CIG62).

The urgency scores applied to each risk are outlined in Appendix 3 in the final column of the relevant CCRA tables for each sector: Table 10 (natural environment), Table 11 (infrastructure), Table 12 (health and built environment), Table 13 (business and industry), and Table 14 (cross-cutting).

To inform the DCIoS Climate Change Risk Register, a range of materials and literature sources were reviewed. These included research projects prepared by the CIG: Flooding and Coastal Erosion Impacts of Climate Change (Environment Agency, 2021), Health Impacts of Climate Change (Public Health Devon, 2020), Climate Change and Devon’s Natural Environment (Devon Local Nature Partnership, 2021), and Climate Change Impact Projections During the 21^st Century (Climate Impacts Group, 2021). Further detail on these documents, including the headline impacts identified in them, can be found in Appendix 2. Other materials reviewed for insight and cross-referencing included the Cornwall Climate Risk Assessment (Cornwall Council, 2022), and the Isles of Scilly Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (Council of the Isles of Scilly, pending publication), also described in Appendix 2.

Headline Summary

The five impact themes described below were scored as being the most severe for the DCIoS region. The themes are not listed in any particular order but discuss the broad hazards that the region faces from climate change.

River and surface water flooding

Devon and Cornwall are highly susceptible to the impacts of river and surface water flooding. Climate change is projected to increase winter rainfall and increase the intensity and frequency of storm events, furthering the region’s vulnerability. In Devon and Cornwall there are many communities located at the bottom of steeply sided valleys and/or near river channels. As a result, these communities are at high risk of rapid onset flooding following heavy rainfall. Research by the Environment Agency estimated that for a flood event with a 0.1% chance of occurring annually, 65,000 residential properties in the region are at risk from river flooding and 50,000 are at risk from surface water flooding (Environment Agency, 2021). A significant proportion of these properties are at risk of flooding more frequently. There are no main rivers or estuaries on the Isles of Scilly, therefore, the islands are not at risk from fluvial (rivers and streams) flooding but are susceptible to pluvial (surface water flooding). However, the economic impact of damage to properties as a result of flooding (from any source), including insurance costs and health impact are important factors to consider.

Floods can affect vital infrastructure such as water and power supplies, telecoms, and transport networks. The impact of the flood damage can be amplified by the interdependency of the infrastructure systems on one another. Areas within the DCIoS region are relatively remote compared to other parts of the UK, serviced by fewer travel networks, therefore the impacts of loss of services may be greater than in other areas.

Alongside damage to above ground infrastructure such as bridges, surface water flooding impacts drainage systems, which in many areas have a combined flow with sewerage systems. High levels of surface water can overload the system, resulting in issues of sewage outflow. This has impacts for wildlife and ecosystems.

Flooding can have significant impacts on the region’s economy, both in the short-term damage to assets and longer-term due to lost revenue from reduced tourism and/or business activity whilst the area recovers. Additionally, individuals’ mental health can be negatively impacted by the trauma of experiencing a flood event, on top of risks to physical health from foul water and flood damage. This can have consequences for productivity and place increased pressure on local health services.

As precipitation patterns and intensity continue to be modified by climate change, the frequency and magnitude of flooding are likely to become more common across the region, affecting a greater proportion of the population and natural environment more frequently. 

Sea level rise (coastal flooding and erosion)

If global temperatures increase by 4°C by 2100, projections suggest sea level in the DCIoS region is very likely to rise by between 0.24m and 0.38m by 2050 relative to the 1981 – 2000 average (Climate Impacts Group, 2021). Wave height, storm surges and offshore wind speed are also expected to increase as a result of climate change, resulting in more intense storm events and greater impacts from coastal flooding. Many communities around the coastline are situated on flat, low-lying areas, or at the rear of exposed beaches, both of which are susceptible to coastal flooding and erosion. Fifteen-thousand properties are currently at risk from coastal flooding in the region (Environment Agency, 2021).

The risks to properties from coastal erosion are projected to increase over time. Sixty-seven properties are at risk over the next 20 years. This rises to 122 properties at risk in 20 to 50 years’ time and 250 properties in 50 to 100 years’ time (Environment Agency, 2021). The general areas at risk are the south coast of Devon to the northeast of Tor Bay, areas around Barnstaple, the Penwith area of Cornwall, and the Isles of Scilly. Coastal erosion will cause the region’s coastline to retreat inland, potentially causing conflict over land use and the need for some coastal communities to relocate.

Flooding and coastal erosion threatens multiple critical infrastructure sites and transport networks across the region. Railway lines are particularly at risk; several lines run along the Devon and Cornish coast and there have been incidences of extended mainline railway closure in Devon due to the failure of sea defences. The mainline connects the region to London and the rest of the UK, therefore coastal erosion and flooding can have major economic impacts on the region in terms of both repair costs and lost revenue, as well tourism. Over 30% of the Isles of Scilly is less than five metres above mean sea level, therefore infrastructure on the islands is highly vulnerable to the impacts of coastal erosion driven by more frequent storms and greater wave heights. Sea level rise also presents a risk to the islands’ already vulnerable freshwater supplies from sea water inundation. Coastal agricultural areas across the region are also threatened by increases in salinity from tidal flooding and projected sea level rise, which may significantly impact the agricultural productivity of the land.

Reduced water availability (drought conditions)

It is projected that decreased summer rainfall will increase the likelihood and length of drought periods and water scarcity in the southwest of the UK (Metcalf et al. 2003). Prolonged periods of reduced water availability will have significant negative impacts on agricultural productivity, commercial forestry and terrestrial and freshwater species and habitats. Droughts will increase the need for irrigation resulting in increased water demand from agriculture and subsequently threaten produce such as salads and soft and top fruits, which are produced across the DCIoS region.

The risk of increased pollutants in concentrated river flows is heightened during droughts, presenting water quality concerns with implications for human and environmental health. The combined effects of more frequent periods of water scarcity and high numbers of summer tourists poses a risk to the region’s public water supply and will also increase demand for energy (electricity and heating/cooling) and other resources. Reduced water availability is likely to have considerable economic implications for businesses and household water supply interruptions threaten public health, including mental-wellbeing.

Drought stress is a hazard of particular concern for the Isles of Scilly as the islands’ groundwater sources have a naturally low capacity leaving the islanders vulnerable to water scarcity in periods of low rainfall, with serious implications for the area economically and for public health. Furthermore, sea level rise and saline intrusion will further exacerbate this is issue and could permanently damage supply.

As climate change progresses there are also potential risks to the region from conflict over water resources. For example, this could include conflict regarding natural competition for water use, through changes in the dynamics of habitats, whereby natural systems and processes require a greater proportion of available water to maintain its natural state, further reducing excess water for human abstraction. Also, the demands of high-water use businesses (hotels, farms, industry etc.) could become conflicted with individual needs and restrictions (e.g. in conflict with domestic hosepipe bans).

Temperature change and extreme heat/cold

Climate change is expected to increase average temperatures, the number of hot days, summers, heatwaves, and periods of extreme heat across the UK, particularly in the south of England, including the DCIoS region. These are likely to cause negative health impacts, including direct negative health impacts from increased illness and death from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and other chronic health conditions, and indirect impacts on health through impact on health services, increased risk of accidents (especially drowning), increased transmission of food and water borne diseases and marine algal blooms, and through potential disruption to critical infrastructure (World Health Organization, 2018). Buildings will likely require adaptation (e.g. the fitting of brise soleil or other solar shade solutions to deflect sunlight) to combat overheating. Furthermore, the layout, orientation and design of new developments and associated landscaping / green infrastructure will require a high standard of design that helps regulate extremes in temperature and create microclimates for shade and shelter.

The hotter climate is expected to negatively affect productivity in both indoor and outdoor based professions. Infrastructure such as road and rail networks are already adversely affected by high temperatures in the DCIoS region, leading to travel disruption which may have implications for people’s health alongside the economy. Periods of extreme heat can cause heat stress, affecting livestock health and productivity and stunting crop growth, resulting in reduced agricultural productivity.

However, warmer temperatures may increase tourism to the area, providing economic benefits. In addition, milder winter temperatures will decrease the number of cold related deaths, with deaths from outcomes associated with cold temperature greatly outnumbering deaths associated with warm temperature (ONS, 2022h).

Cascading impacts

Cascading impacts can be triggered by multiple hazards that occur coincidentally or sequentially, creating substantial disruption to human and or natural systems (Collins et al. 2019). There is a large amount of uncertainty in the quantification of cascading impacts due to the absence of data and the shifting influence of climate change on different hazards over time (Collins et al. 2019). This uncertainty makes the risks of cascading impacts greater. Climate related hazards place key infrastructure and services at risk from cascading failures (e.g. power outages caused by high winds would disrupt operations at the Isles of Scilly’s desalination plant, which would have considerable implications for the populations’ fresh water supply). Across the DCIoS region there is the risk that interaction between named hazards could result in the compounding of impacts across different systems.

Headline Summary

Key impacts to the sector

Nineteen risks and opportunities were identified, of which six were scored as severe, ten as major, two as moderate and one as negligible.

The climate change risk assessment for the natural environment is summarised below and detailed in Table 10 in Appendix 3 – Climate change risk assessment scores.

Severe risks and significant opportunities

• Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, wind, and altered hydrology (including water scarcity, flooding, and saline intrusion). [CIG01]
• Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness. [CIG04]
• Risks and opportunities for natural carbon stores (peatlands, forestry, marine etc.), carbon sequestration and GHG emissions from changing climatic conditions, including temperature change and water scarcity. [CIG05]
• Risks to freshwater species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including higher water temperatures, flooding, water scarcity and phenological shifts. Including saline intrusion of wetlands, estuary habitats etc. [CIG12]
• Risks to marine species, habitats, and fisheries from changing climatic conditions, including ocean acidification and higher water temperatures. [CIG15]
• Risks and opportunities to coastal species and habitats due to sea level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, and climate factors. [CIG18]

Major risks and opportunities

• Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from pests, pathogens, and invasive species. [CIG02]
• Opportunities from new species colonisations in terrestrial habitats. [CIG03]
• Risks and opportunities to agricultural productivity from extreme events and changing climatic conditions (including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, coastal erosion, wind and saline intrusion, carbon fertilisation). [CIG06]
• Risks to forestry from pests, pathogens, and invasive species. [CIG09]
• Opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from new/alternative species becoming suitable. [CIG10]
• Risks to aquifers from changing climatic conditions, sea level rise, water scarcity, water pollution, saltwater intrusion etc. [CIG11]
• Risks to freshwater species and habitats from pests, pathogens, and invasive species. [CIG13]
• Opportunities to marine species, habitats, and fisheries from changing climatic conditions. [CIG16]
• Risks to marine and coastal species and habitats from pests, pathogens, and invasive species. [CIG17]
• Risks and opportunities from climate change to the way people experience, value and enjoy different landscapes. [CIG19]

Moderate risks and opportunities

• Risks and opportunities to forestry productivity from extreme events and changing climatic conditions (including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, coastal erosion, wind, and saline intrusion). [CIG07]
• Risks to agri-food (agriculture and horticulture) from pests, pathogens, and invasive species. [CIG08]

Negligible risks and opportunities

• Opportunities to freshwater species and habitats from new species colonisations. [CIG14]

Discussion of impacts to the sector

Of the six potentially severe climate change impacts, risks to terrestrial species and habitats (CIG01), risks to soils (CIG02), and risks to freshwater species and habitats (CIG12) all scored the maximum risk score of 25 (i.e., the magnitude and likelihood of the impacts for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario were considered Very High and Very Likely respectively). These impacts indicate a risk of decline in ecosystem services, localised extinction of rare species, habitat fragmentation and reduction, and pollution as the region warms.

Risks to marine species, habitats, and fisheries (CIG15), risks and opportunities for natural carbon stores, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CIG05), and risks and opportunities to coastal species and habitats (CIG18) all scored a risk score of 20 (i.e., risk magnitudes were considered Very High while risk likelihoods were considered Likely for all three impacts). While possible loss of species and habitat were identified for marine species (CIG15), there are also potential opportunities for warm-water marine species to migrate northwards into the DCIoS region under warming climatic conditions. Agriculture is expected to be impacted by increased rainfall intensity and runoff causing increased soil erosion, reducing soil fertility, and subsequently reducing productivity.

Additional adaptation is needed for all six of the impacts that were scored as severe, either over and above what is already happening, or in some cases adaptation needs to start.

Of the ten climate change impacts scored as major, risks to terrestrial species, freshwater species, marine and coastal species and their habitats from pests, pathogens, and invasive species (CIG02, CIG13, CIG17), risks and opportunities to agricultural productivity (CIG06), and opportunities from new species colonisations in terrestrial habitats (CIG03) have a risk score of 16. This meant that the magnitude and likelihood of the impacts for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario were considered High and Likely respectively. Risks to forestry from pests, pathogens, and invasive species (CIG09), risks and opportunities to landscape character (CIG19), opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from new or alternative species (CIG10), and opportunities for marine species, habitats, and fisheries (CIG16) each had a risk score of 12, demonstrating a High magnitude and Possible likelihood. The risk to aquifers (CIG11) exhibited a Moderate magnitude but a High likelihood of occurrence.  

Additional adaptation is needed for seven of these impacts (CIG02, CIG03, CIG06, CIG09, CIG10, CIG13, CIG17) whilst further investigation is necessary for CIG16 and CIG19 as insufficient evidence is available to make a robust judgement on what further action is required. Sustain Current Action was specified for CIG11 for the DCIoS region, although More Action Needed was identified for the Isles of Scilly specifically, as saline intrusion due to sea level rise is a large risk to the islands and adaptation to date has been insufficient.

Risks to agri-food from pests, pathogens, and invasive species (CIG08) and risks and opportunities to forestry productivity (CIG07) were both classed as Moderate for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario. However, more adaptive actions are still needed in the next five years on a region-wide level.

Meanwhile, opportunities to freshwater species and habitats from new species colonisations (CIG14) was classed as Negligible. The urgency score was defined as Sustain Current Action, although the opportunity for beavers was noted as one area for potential further investigation.

Headline Summary

Key impacts to the sector

Fifteen impacts were identified. Four were classified as Severe, four as Major and seven as Moderate. All were considered to present a risk, rather than opportunity.

The climate change risk assessment for the infrastructure sector is summarised below and detailed in Table 11 in Appendix 3 – Climate change risk assessment scores.

Severe risks and significant opportunities

• Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, digital) from cascading failures (e.g. access to broadband being disrupted due to power outages; and sewage overflow from heavy rainfall events). [CIG20]
• Risks to infrastructure assets and services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding (including chronic changes), as well as associated landslips and/or soil movement. [CIG21]
• Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion. [CIG22]
• Risks to nearshore infrastructure (e.g. harbours and breakwaters) from storms and high waves and/or offshore infrastructure (where applicable). [CIG30]

Major risks and opportunities

• Risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding (i.e. river, surface water and groundwater flooding) and erosion. [CIG23]
• Risks to public water supplies from reduced water availability (and shifting supply and demand balances). [CIG27]
• Risks to energy from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning, humidity. [CIG29]
• Risks to transport from high and low temperatures (incl. ice and snow), high winds, lightning, humidity. [CIG31]

Moderate risks and opportunities

• Risks to infrastructure networks (incl. transport, energy etc.) from slope and embankment failure (e.g. landslips). [CIG24]
• Risks to hydroelectric generation from low or high river flows. [CIG25]
• Risks to below (subterranean) and above (surface) ground infrastructure from subsidence (sinking of the ground). [CIG26]
• Risks to energy generation from reduced water availability (i.e. freshwater use in energy generation process). [CIG28]
• Risk of disruption to transport services (e.g. planes, helicopters etc.) from fog (exacerbated by changes in sea surface temperature, humidity, winds etc.). [CIG32]
• Risks to digital from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning. [CIG33]
• Risks to infrastructure networks from high winds and intense rainfall. [CIG64]

Discussion of impacts to the sector

Of the four potentially severe climate change impacts, risks to infrastructure networks from cascading failures (CIG20), risks to infrastructure assets and services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding, as well as associated landslips and/or soil movement (CIG21), risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion (CIG22) and risks to nearshore infrastructure from storms and high waves and/or offshore infrastructure (CIG30) all had a risk score of 20 out of 25, for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario (risk magnitudes were considered Very High while risk likelihoods were considered Likely for all four impacts). CIG22 was considered to be increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as coastal squeeze meant less scope to move assets inland. 

Urgency scores for CIG21 and CIG30 were defined as More Action Needed, while urgency score for CIG20 and CIG22 were defined as Further Investigation.

Four impacts were scored as a major risk from climate change. These included risks to public water supplies from reduced water availability (CIG27) and risks to energy and transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning, humidity (CIG29, CIG31), each of which scored a risk rating of 16 (i.e. High magnitude and Likely chance of occurrence), whilst risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding and erosion (CIG23) had a risk score of 12 (High magnitude and a Possible likelihood of occurrence). All four impacts were considered to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to the age and design of infrastructure and the exposure of assets to interacting and cascading impacts.

Urgency scores for CIG27 and CIG31 were defined as More Action Needed, while urgency score for CIG23 and CIG29 were defined as Further Investigation. All four were considered major regional-wide impacts, although the susceptibility of the Isles of Scilly was deemed slightly greater due to the exposure of assets to various climate impacts.

Risks to infrastructure networks from slope and embankment failure (CIG24), risks to hydroelectric generation from low or high river flows (CIG25), risks to below and above ground infrastructure from subsidence (CIG26), risks to energy generation from reduced water availability (CIG28), risk of disruption to transport services from fog (CIG32), risks to digital from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning (CIG33) and risks to infrastructure networks from high winds and intense rainfall (CIG64) were all classed as Moderate for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario.

Further Investigation on what adaptive actions are needed is required for CIG24, CIG33 and CIG64. CIG26 and CIG32 were classed as Sustain Current Action, whilst CIG25 and CIG28 were assigned as a Watching Brief, whereby the impacts are a lower priority and monitoring of the situation was deemed sufficient at this time.

Headline Summary

Key impacts to the sector

Sixteen impacts were identified. Four were classified as Severe, nine as Major, two as Moderate and one as Minor. Of these, 14 impacts were considered as a risk, one an opportunity, and one as both a risk and opportunity.

The climate change risk assessment for the health and built environment sector is summarised below and detailed in Table 12 in Appendix 3 – Climate change risk assessment scores.

Severe risks and significant opportunities

• Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures; including from direct exposure, overheating of buildings, and urban heat island effect. [CIG34]
• Risks to people, communities and buildings from river, surface water and groundwater flooding. [CIG37]
• Risks to people, communities and buildings from sea level rise and coastal erosion. [CIG38]
• Risks to food safety and food security in the DCIoS region. [CIG42]

Major risks and opportunities

• Risks to mental health and wellbeing from extreme weather events and/or the climate emergency. [CIG35]
• Risks and opportunities from summer and winter household energy demand; opportunity – winter (b) risk – summer [CIG39]
• Risks to health from transmissible diseases (including water-borne, vector-borne, air-borne, bacterial, infectious diseases etc, as well as novel viral and genetic changes). [CIG41]
• Risks to health from water quality (e.g. private drinking water or bathing water), including contamination of drinking water through increased runoff and flooding events that overwhelm current water treatment approaches. [CIG43]
• Risks to health from private water supply (e.g. potential interruptions in household water supply from wells or boreholes). [Excludes public drinking water and wastewater services from South West Water]. [CIG44]
• Risks to cultural heritage and assets in the DCIoS region. [CIG45]
• Risks to health and social care delivery. [CIG46]
• Risks to education services. [CIG47]
• Risks to prison services. [CIG48]

Moderate risks and opportunities

• Risks to health and wellbeing from changes in air quality, both indoor and out. [CIG40]
• Risks to people, communities and buildings from wildfires. [CIG63]

Minor risks and opportunities

• Opportunities for health and wellbeing from higher temperatures. [CIG36]

Discussion of impacts to the sector

Of the four impacts scored as severe, risks to people, communities and buildings from sea level rise and coastal erosion (CIG38) had the maximum risk score of 25 (i.e. the magnitude and likelihood for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario were considered Very High and Very Likely respectively). The DCIoS region is particularly at risk due to its exposure to Atlantic storms, often being the first bit of the country to be hit and taking the brunt of the storm in terms of wind and wave energy. Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures (CIG34), risks to people, communities and buildings from river, surface water and groundwater flooding (CIG37), and risks to food safety and food security in the DCIoS region (CIG42) all had a risk score of 20. For these three impacts, risk magnitudes were considered Very High while risk likelihoods were considered Likely. The frail and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to heatwaves, with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases being common causes of deaths during heatwave events. Health risks associated with building overheating, flooding damage, water and biological contamination, and infectious disease transmission, especially exacerbated by poor infrastructure, are also possible in a rapidly warming climate.

More adaptive action is needed in the next five years for CIG34, CIG37 and CIG38, whilst Further Investigation is needed to make a robust judgement call on what actions are needed for CIG42.

Of the nine impacts scored as major, risks to mental health and wellbeing (CIG35), risks to health from transmissible diseases (CIG41), risks to cultural heritage and assets in the DCIoS region (CIG45), risks to health and social care delivery (CIG46), risks to education services (CIG47) and risks to prison services (CIG48) all had a score of 16 (i.e. High magnitude and Likely chance of occurrence in the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario). It was noted that climate change can potentially bring a range of impacts, including mental or existential distress, vector-borne diseases and infectious diseases, and cascading impacts that can compromise health and other social services. All the above impacts demand urgent additional adaptation (More Action Needed), except for CIG45 where further investigation is necessary.

Risks to health from water quality, including contamination of drinking water through increased runoff and flooding events that overwhelm current water treatment approaches (CIG43), risks to health from private water supply (CIG44) and risks and opportunities from summer and winter household energy demand (CIG39) are also potentially major impacts with a risk score of 12 (risk magnitudes and likelihoods for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario were High and Possible for all 3 impacts). Harmful algal blooms due to rising temperature and reduction in precipitation both threatened the quality and quantity of water.

Urgency scores for CIG43 and CIG44 were classed as Further Investigation, while the urgency score for CIG39 was classed as More Action Needed in the next five years.

Risks to health and wellbeing from changes in air quality, both indoor and out (CIG40) and risks to people, communities and buildings from wildfires (CIG63) were classed as Moderate for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario. Meanwhile, opportunities for health and wellbeing from higher temperatures was classed as Minor. Urgency scores for all three impacts were defined as Further Investigation in the next 5 years.

Headline Summary

Key impacts to the sector

Seven impacts were identified. Two were classified as Severe, three as Major and two as Moderate. Five impacts were considered as risks, one was an opportunity, and one was considered as both risk and opportunity.

The climate change risk assessment for the business and industry sector is summarised below and detailed in Table 13 in Appendix 3 – Climate change risk assessment scores.

Severe risks and significant opportunities

• Risks to business sites from flooding and flash flooding (fluvial, pluvial and groundwater). [CIG49]
• Risks to business locations and infrastructure from coastal change from erosion, sea level rise, flooding, and extreme weather events. [CIG50]

Major risks and opportunities

• Risks to businesses from water scarcity. [CIG51]
• Risks and opportunities to finance, investment and insurance including access to capital for businesses. [CIG52]
• Risks to business from disruption to supply chains and distribution networks from extreme weather events. [CIG54]

Moderate risks and opportunities

• Risks to business from reduced employee productivity due to infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments. [CIG53]
• Opportunities for business (i.e. tourism) from changes in demand for goods and services, change in focus of tourism from international to local. [CIG55]

Discussion of impacts to the sector

Of the two potentially severe climate change impacts, risks to business locations and infrastructure from coastal change (CIG50) had the maximum risk score of 25 (Very High magnitude and Very Likely likelihood) due to the proximity of many businesses and associated infrastructure to the coast, making them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Risk to business sites from flooding and flash flooding (CIG49) was also scored as Severe with a risk score of 20 (Very High magnitude and a Likely chance of occurrence). Additional adaptation actions are urgently needed in the next 5 years for both of these impacts (More Action Needed) across the region.

Of the three impacts assessed as Major, risks to businesses from water scarcity (CIG51) and risks and opportunities to finance, investment, and insurance (CIG52) both has a risk score of 16. The magnitude and likelihood of the impacts for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario were thus considered High and Likely respectively. In particular, businesses may not be able to operate, or may see reduction in productivity due to water scarcity, especially on the Isles of Scilly. Although Devon and Cornwall get relatively higher amounts of rainfall compared to the Isles of Scilly, only a limited amount is captured and stored due to the small number of reservoirs. There are however opportunities for insurance and green finance to utilise natural capital. Further investigation may be necessary to determine what actions may be needed in the next five years.

Meanwhile, risks to business from disruption to supply chains and distribution networks (CIG54) had a risk score of 12 (High magnitude and Possible likelihood). This is a global problem, so it is hard to accurately define the risk magnitude and likelihood. However, more adaptation actions are certainly needed in the next five years due to the extensive reach of this particular risk.

Risks to business from reduced employee productivity due to infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments (CIG53) and opportunities for business from changes in demand for goods and services (CIG55) were both assessed as Moderate for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario. Urgency score was defined as Further Investigation in the next five years.

Headline Summary

Key impacts to the sector

Seven impacts were identified. Two were classified as Severe, two as Major and three as Moderate. Five impacts were considered as risks, one an opportunity, and one considered as both risk and opportunity.

The climate change risk assessment for cross-cutting and international risks and opportunities is summarised below and detailed in Table 14 in Appendix 3 – Climate change risk assessment scores.

Severe risks and significant opportunities

• Risk to public health from climate change overseas (e.g. zoonotic diseases and resultant challenge to health services). [CIG61]
• Risk multiplication from the interactions and cascades of named risks across systems and geographies (i.e. system risk or compound events). [CIG62]

Major risks and opportunities

• Risks to regional food availability, safety, and quality from climate change overseas. [CIG56]
• Risks to law (e.g. environmental crime, domestic violence, acquisitive crime) and governance in the DCIoS region from climate change. [CIG60]

Moderate risks and opportunities

• Opportunities for UK food availability and exports from climate impacts overseas. [CIG57]
• Risks and opportunities to the DCIoS region from climate-related international/regional human mobility. [CIG58]
• Risks to the DCIoS region from civil disorder and conflict resulting from climate change (e.g. battle for water resources). [CIG59]

Discussion of impacts to the sector

The two impacts defined as severe, risks to public health from climate change overseas (CIG61) and risk multiplication from the interactions and cascades of named risks across systems and geographies (CIG62), each had a risk score of 20 out of 25. Risk magnitude was Very High for CIG61 but High for CIG62; risk likelihood was Likely for CIG61 but Very Likely for CIG62. More adaptation actions are needed (More Action Needed) for CIG61, whilst CIG62 requires Further Investigation to better understand where, what, and how bad the problem may be.

Of the two impacts assessed as major, risks to regional food availability, safety, and quality from climate change overseas (CIG56) and risks to law and governance in the DCIoS region from climate change (CIG60) both had a risk score of 12. Risk magnitude was High for CIG56 but Medium for CIG60; risk likelihood was Possible for CIG56 but Likely for CIG60. In particular, DCIoS is already experiencing high levels of food insecurity and rising food costs are likely to have an impact on those already struggling. The urgency scores for CIG56 and CIG60 were classed as More Action Needed in the next five years.

Risks to the DCIoS region from civil disorder and conflict resulting from climate change (CIG59), opportunities for UK food availability and exports from climate impacts overseas (CIG57), and risks and opportunities to the DCIoS region from climate-related international/regional human mobility (CIG58) were all considered Moderate impacts for the 2050s under a 4°C warming scenario. Further investigation was recommended in the next five years for site-specific impacts like CIG58 and CIG59, while situation monitoring (Watching Brief) is recommended for the regional-wide impact of CIG57.